Even  with  sophisticated  information  and  control  systems,  decision  making in  critical infrastructure  management  is  a challenge. This holds for normal and near-normal operations, and even more for crisis management. The  system  behavior  is  too  complex  to  be  fully  accessible  by  human intuition.  Though  human expertise is an indispensable pre-requisite to manage such complex systems, the analysis of system behavior  and  the  prediction  of  changes  need  special  purpose  simulations  which  take  the  specific modes  of  system  behavior  into  account.  That’s  why  CI  information  and  control  systems  include special purpose simulations (such as, for instance, N-1 contingency analysis in power grids). They are an essential pre-requisite to understand and manage the complexity.

Today, these simulation systems are highly adapted to the specific domains. They are based on the assumption to completely know the state of their critical infrastructures. Both assumptions are not adequate  for  dependent  critical  infrastructures  with  external  ICT  systems.  They  are  not  suited  for holistic risk management in such dependent networks of networks. What is needed is an integrative information  management with  federated  simulations  bringing  the  different  system  behaviors together.

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